Where are interest rates heading and when will they start to move? This has been the hot topic of conversation for the past two years and it looks as if it will continue until rates finally start moving and everyone can exhale and say, "yes, there, we knew it."
Or consider this: Can we just accept that low-interest rates are now the norm, since we've been in this environment since 2010, instead of trying to second-guess what the Bank of Canada will do every month? In a recent report by CIBC's Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld said maybe it is time for a new message.
It's easy to forget that the housing market has been a vital component to the success of the Canadian economy during the past decade. In many respects, the industry has helped to stabilize a faltering economy. Consumer spending and confidence remains high - a large part of that comes from allowing consumers to take advantage of low interest rates and to tap into their equity for either spending or investing purposes.
Yes, the government in Canada has had to keep our economy afloat during the recent recession first, by injecting billions of dollars in spending into the economy and second, by instilling a degree of confidence in Canadians and investors by tweaking credit guidelines. However, at the end of the day, it still comes down to actions taken by every day Canadians who put their faith in their ability to repay loans, their ability to manage their household debt, and through consumer spending, that is pulling us through.
We are very fortunate to have weathered the recession as well as we have. However many Canadians are still worried. They are worried about rising rates, they are worried about the possibility of decreasing home values, and they are worried about their ability to save for the future.
Let's look at recent messages from Bank of Canada's Mark Carney. He delivered the message that consumers will pay more in the future for what they borrow today. The latest economic news is positive for a growing economy going into 2013, which will make it easier for Carney to raise the rates. However, recently Carney backtracked slightly and has hinted that rates are not likely to rise until later in 2013 and/or into 2014. He also said that he sees no "imminent" changes ahead, but that "over time, rates are more likely to go up than not."
The latest Housing Market Outlook reports that although slight increases are expected in 2013, rates will remain low by historical standards.
Inflation is another reason rates could rise. Canada's inflation rate is sitting at approximately 1.2% - the lowest level in more than two years. If this should start to rise past Carney's 2.5% benchmark then rates could rise.
The retail sector is a good indicator about consumer confidence and the state of the economy. New research from Ernst and Young predicts that 2012 holiday retail sales in Canada are expected to increase by 3.5% over last year.
It's clear that Canada's economy continues to expand and that we are operating on sound principals. According to Carney, Canada is no longer in the recovery stage but in the expansion phase. That is good news for all economic sectors. Will interest rates go up? They will, but likely not until late 2013 so as not to negate any of the positive effects of a growing and expanding economy.
TMG The Mortgage Group
No comments:
Post a Comment