Bank of Canada interest rate decision: What you need to know

Eric Lam

Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of Canada, again held interest rates at 1% in June, but warned of deteriorating global conditions and continued domestic pressure from housing and household debt

Once again the Bank of Canada maintained interest rates at 1% Tuesday, staying the course despite confirming global financial turbulence is creeping ever closer to our shores, while housing and household debt remain domestic risks.

The Bank of Canada has now held rates at a stimulus-level 1% since September 2010.

“Beneath the calm exterior, the tone of today’s press statement took only a moderate shift,” Doug Porter, deputy chief economist with BMO Capital Markets, said in an analysis Tuesday morning.

Here’s a few of the key points from the governor’s June rate decision statement, and what they mean:

Global problems are not going away

The outlook for global economic growth has weakened in recent weeks. Some of the risks around the European crisis are materializing and risks remain skewed to the downside. This is leading to a sharp deterioration in global financial conditions.

These are some of the strongest comments from the Bank on the re-escalating eurozone financial crisis yet, in line with the escalating rhetoric both within the region and abroad.

“The Bank of Canada is in a holding pattern, waiting for the weather to clear over the rate-hike runway,” Mr. Porter said. “Given the sudden re-accumulation of heavy European clouds, we suspect it could be a long wait.”
About those interest rates …

To the extent that the economic expansion continues and the current excess supply in the economy is gradually absorbed, some modest withdrawal of the present considerable monetary policy stimulus may become appropriate.

While the second part of this line has been present for a while, fuelling speculation of a possible rate hike after it popped up in April, the first phrase is new.

“Adding this language to already soft words like ‘may’ demonstrates a further lack of conviction toward the outlook than even the rest of the statement implies,” Derek Holt and Dov Zigler, economists with Scotia Capital, said in a report. “That’s fair game given the significant binary event risk that lies ahead.”

And there’s certainly nary a hint of the possibility of a rate cut at this point, even as some analysts have speculated based on bond rates.

“Today’s statement struck a very prudent balance, acknowledging the weaker global economic outlook, but also reminding markets (who had priced in a chance of a rate cut by year end) that barring a global catastrophe the next interest rate move will be up, not down,” Leslie Preston, economist with TD Economics, said in a note.

Commodity weakness bad news for Canada

While the U.S. economy continues to expand at a modest pace, economic activity in emerging-market economies is slowing a bit faster and a bit more broadly than had been expected. More modest global momentum and heightened financial risk aversion have reduced commodity prices.

This is troubling on two levels. First, with both Europe and the United States mired in middling to flat growth, many economists have come to depend on emerging markets to drive global growth. However, with many of these markets now also struggling, especially China, the prospects for a global slowdown increase.

Meanwhile, with emerging market economies driving much of the demand for commodities over the past few years, a continued slowdown in those countries also means further downside for commodity prices — bad news for Canada and the many resources stocks on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

Housing, household debt still a concern

Housing activity has been stronger than expected, and households continue to add to their debt burden in an environment of modest income growth.

Mr. Carney remains ever-vigilant about the housing market in Canada, and the continued accumulation of household debt, as he has been for much of the past few years.

“In my opinion, this nevertheless ignores the marked slowdown in the pace of growth in household debt and the lagged effects of numerous forms of regulatory tightening that should be encouraging to the BoC assuming the policy goal here isn’t total flatness in household lending,” Mr. Holt said.