Thursday, 15 November 2012

Are we placing too much failth in Banks' advice?

Rob Carrick,  The Globe and Mail


In the banks we trust.

A question to ponder for Financial Literacy Month is why this is so.

A Bank of Montreal survey to be released Friday shows people are more likely to turn to their bank with a financial question than anywhere else, including financial advisers, friends and family and the media. The younger people are, the more important banks become as a source of information.

BMO and all the banks in this country deserve kudos for the masterly way in which they market themselves not as what they really are, financial supermarkets, but as our partners in pursuit of financial success. Don’t be gullible. Banks are not the predators that their harshest critics say they are, but their primary accountability is to shareholders who are hungry for rising profits.

The BMO survey involved 1,000 people aged 18 and older and was conducted late last month by Pollara. Fifty-six per cent of participants said they’re most likely to turn to their bank with a financial question, compared with 47 per cent for a financial adviser and 39 per cent for friends and family. A mix of websites, blogs, print media and social media accounted for the rest.

People aged 65 and older were least likely to consult the bank – 44 per cent of this group ranked the banks as a source of help. At the other end of the scale, 63 per cent of people aged 18 to 29 indicated they relied on banks.

The banks know us well as customers – often they have a lifetime’s worth of financial information to consult, and they are concerned about customer retention.

Banks also sell the financial tools we all need, and they’re usually open to negotiating the cost or interest rates involved. The more business you have with a bank, the better the deal you should get.
On the other hand, there’s no onus on the banks to offer the products or advice that work best for your needs. Some of the people you deal with at bank branches may in part be paid through commissions or bonuses on products sold, or they may be under instructions to emphasize one product over another.

Either way, what’s best for the bank may not be ideal for you.

Banks may also withhold key information that would help you make informed choices. If you don’t know the intricacies of a product, you can’t count on them to wise you up.

In at least one sense, banks appear to be getting along better with others. It used to be commonplace for federal members of Parliament to lace into the banks over high credit card rates, service fees and such. Now, whether it’s because the banks are better behaved or simply that people have other concerns, hardly a word is said against the banks by MPs these days.

You get a different view when you look how the number of bank-related complaints flowing into the Ombudsman for Banking Services and Investments has risen to 448 from 240 in the past five years, or 87 per cent. OBSI hears from people only after they have exhausted every avenue within a bank to resolve a complaint.

The lower level of reliance on banks among people aged 65 and older suggests they’ve figured banks out. Younger Canadians, save yourself from learning the hard way. Make the banks part of your advice team, but only one voice among many.

Financial advisers are also worth consulting, especially those who charge fees for their services rather than getting paid through commissions embedded in products. Avoid advisers who respond to every point you raise with a product you should buy.

Whoever you speak to, be sure to get second, third and fourth opinions using the resources available from the likes of this newspaper, as well as blogs, financial websites and social media. Brief yourself before you talk to a banker or adviser by doing some online research, and then do some further checking after your conversation.

It’s never been more important to apply the principles of financial literacy to the way we deal with banks. More and more, the banks are moving beyond chequing accounts and mortgages into selling investments and financial planning. Have you noticed how more bank branches are opening on Saturday and Sunday? It’s all about helping you find time to come in for advice.

Go on in to talk, but remember that a key rule of financial literacy is to be careful about trusting the banks.

Where Canadians are seeking financial advice

SourceCanadaAge 18-2930-3940-4950-6465+MenWomen
Financial websites31%39%39%37%26%13%31%32%
Friends and family39%61%51%38%30%14%35%43%
My bank56%63%62%54%55%44%57%56%
My financial adviser47%38%40%46%52%64%47%48%
Newspapers and magazines16%18%17%19%11%21%16%16%
Online news articles/blogs24%30%34%26%18%13%23%25%
Social media6%15%8%6%2%<1%7%5%

Monday, 12 November 2012

10 Great Reasons to Use a Mortgage Broker

Francois Begin, Chronicle-Telegraph


1 Get independent advice on your financial options. As independent mortgage brokers and mortgage agents, we’re not tied to any one lender or range of products. Our goal is to help you successfully finance your home or property. We’ll start by getting to know you and your homeownership goals. We’ll make a recommendation, drawing from available mortgage products that match your needs, and we will decide together on what’s right for you.

2 Save time with one-stop shopping. It could take weeks for you to organize appointments with competing mortgage lenders — and we know you’d probably rather spend your time house-hunting! We work directly with dozens of lenders, and can quickly narrow down a list of those that suit you best. It makes comparison-shopping fast, easy, and convenient.

3 We negotiate on your behalf. Many people are uncertain or uncomfortable negotiating mortgages directly with their bank. Brokers negotiate mortgages each and every day on behalf of Canadian homebuyers. You can count on our market knowledge to secure competitive rates and terms that benefit you.

4 More choice means more competitive rates. We have access to a network of major lenders in Canada, so your options are extensive. In addition to traditional lenders, we also know what’s being offered by credit unions, trust companies, and other sources. And we can help you take care of other requirements before your closing date, such as sourcing mortgage default insurance if your down payment is less than 20% of the purchase price.

5 Ensure that you’re getting the best rates and terms. Even if you’ve already been pre-approved for a mortgage by your bank or another financial institution, you’re not obliged to stop shopping! Let us investigate to see if there is an alternative to better suit your needs.

6 Get access to special deals and add-ons. Many financial institutions would love to have you as a client, which is why they often offer incentives to attract creditworthy customers. These can include retail points programs, discounts on appliances, shopping clubs, and more. We do the math on which offers might be worth your attention when it comes to financing or mortgage insurance — so you get the perks you deserve.

7 Things move quickly! Our job isn’t done until your closing date goes smoothly. We’ll help ensure your mortgage transaction takes place on time and to your satisfaction.

8 Get expert advice. When it comes to mortgages, rates, and the housing market, we’ll speak to you in plain language. We can explain the various mortgage terms and conditions so you can choose confidently.

9 No cost to you. There’s absolutely no charge for our services on typical residential mortgage transactions. How can we afford to do that? Like many other professional services, such as insurance, mortgage brokers are generally paid a finder’s fee when we introduce trustworthy, dependable customers to a financial institution. These fees are quite standard and nearly industry-wide so that the focus remains on you, the customer.

10 Ongoing support and consultation. Even once your mortgage is signed and paperwork is complete, we are here if you need any advice on closing details or even future referral needs. We are happy to be of assistance when you need it.

Friday, 9 November 2012

Canada’s home prices seen falling, not crashing

Andrea Hopkins, Reuters, National Post


WHAT THE ECONOMISTS SAID
Twenty forecasters were polled on Canada’s housing market. Here are the results
CANADIAN HOUSE PRICES
A rise of 0.1% in 2012 was the median from 14 forecasts
A rise of 0.1% in 2013 was the median from 12 forecasts
TORONTO HOUSE PRICES
A rise of 0.3% in 2012 was the median from 6 forecasts
A fall of 2.0% in 2013 was the median from 5 forecasts
VANCOUVER HOUSE PRICES
A fall of 3.0% in 2012 was the median from 6 forecasts
A fall of 4.8% in 2013 was the median from 5 forecasts
2a. If you think Canadian house prices will fall, how much (in percentage terms), will they drop from here?
5.0% was the median from 9 forecasts.
Forecasts ranged from 0.0% to 25.0%.
2b. When will they stabilize?
1 said Q1 2012 1 said Q2- Q3 2012
1 said Q4 2013 1 said Q1 2014
1 said Q1 2015 2 said 2015
3.On a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 is extremely undervalued, 5 is fairly valued and 10 is extremely overvalued, what best describes the current average level of Canadian house prices relative to fundamentals?
7 was the median from 14 forecasts
Forecasts ranged from scale of 5 to 8

4. Do you think the Canadian government will tighten mortgage rules within the next 12 months in an attempt to cool the housing market?
10 said yes
4 said no
TORONTO — Canadian housing prices will fall 10% over the next several years and homebuilding will slow sharply in 2013, but the country’s recent property boom is not expected to end in a U.S.-style collapse, according to a Reuters poll.
The survey of 20 forecasters published on Friday showed the majority believe the Canadian government has done enough to rein in runaway prices, preventing the type of crash that has devastated the U.S. market for years.
“This isn’t a sharp correction, this isn’t a U.S.-style correction, it’s just simply an unwinding of the excess valuation that was created by artificially low interest rates for a long period of time,” said Craig Alexander, chief economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank.
“I would emphasize that while a 10% correction sounds scary, in actual fact, this would be a healthy outcome.”
U.S. house prices crashed as a mortgage crisis unraveled in 2008, triggering a financial crisis and leaving a trail of foreclosures, negative equity and financial hardship for millions of people. Housing prices in the U.S. have only begun to rise again this year.
On a national basis, Canadian house prices are expected to drop 10% over the next several years, and housing starts will fall more than 17% to 184,000 units by mid-2013, according to median results of the poll, which was conducted over the last week.
House prices have already begun to cool in some areas but nationally remain 23% higher than their trough in March 2009, according to a Canadian Real Estate Association index.
Respondents in the Reuters poll said house prices will rise 2.0% in 2012 and fall 0.1% in 2013, according to the median of 18 forecasts, putting most of the losses at least two years away.
Median forecasts had Toronto prices rising 5.1% in 2012 and falling 1.3% in 2013. But respondents saw an eventual 5% fall from current levels. Vancouver prices were forecast to fall 2.7% in 2012 and 3.8% in 2013, with an eventual decline of 12.5%.
As sales decline and prices fall, homebuilders will ratchet back on construction starts, the poll showed.
Housing starts, which notched a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 222,945 units in the third quarter, will decline to 200,500 in the fourth quarter, 186,900 in the first quarter of 2013, and 184,000 in the second quarter of next year.
BITE OUT OF GROWTH
That 17.5% drop in new homebuilding will take a bite out of Canada’s economic growth, fuelled by the housing sector, consumer spending and government stimulus since growth slowed in 2009. But a strengthening global economy should help pick up the slack, Alexander said.
Not everyone is as sanguine. While economists at Canada’s major banks have consistently predicted a softening in prices and a slowing in housing starts, some independent analysts see a very hard landing ahead.
“The housing market is something to be very worried about,” said David Madani, Canada economist at consultancy Capital Economics in Toronto.
Madani, whose forecasts are included in the Reuters poll, has consistently predicted a 25% drop in prices and a plunge in housing starts to just 150,000 next year as builders grapple with too many homes and falling demand.
“The one symptom that housing bubbles always have in common is the over building, and I feel the banks play this down a bit,” said Madani, pointing to recent housing starts well above the 175,000 to 185,000 pace economists say is needed to keep up with population growth.
“We’ve been building above 200,0000 for several years. And we know we’ve been building above demographic requirements because the evidence is in the inventory data – it’s high, it’s not low,” said Madani.
“The excesses are there, it’s plain and clear to see.”
Still, all 15 respondents who answered an additional question said they believe the Canadian government has done enough to slow the housing market and prevent a U.S.-style crash, as Finance Minister Jim Flaherty has argued.
RULE CHANGES HURT
Mindful of the U.S. boom and bust, the federal government tightened mortgage lending rules four times in the last four years to make it harder for home buyers to take on too much debt in their quest for a home.
The rule changes gradually shorted the maximum mortgage length from 40 years to 25 and also put limits on how much homeowners could borrow against their house, among other measures.
While interest rates are not expected to rise until mid-2013, the stiffer lending rules and government warnings about the high debt loads of Canadian households have helped cool the ardor of home buyers, with the hottest markets, including Vancouver and Toronto, already feeling a chill.
Sales of existing homes were down 15.1% in September from a year earlier, and were 6.5% lower in the third quarter from the previous three months, according to data from the Canadian Real Estate Association.
Prices, which lag sales, have started to come down as well. Prices for existing homes dipped 0.4% in September from August, according the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index, but remain 3.6% higher than a year earlier.
Prices of new homes rose 0.2% in the month, the 18th straight monthly gain, and were up 2.4% on the year, according to Statistics Canada

Thursday, 8 November 2012

How house prices depend on demographics

Jason Heath, The Financial Post
 
 
What’s going to happen to home prices in Canada? Despite all of the analyses and hypotheses in the media, the answer may not be based on historical real estate prices, interest rates or ratios. The answers may lie, to a great extent, in our demographics.

The typical Baby Boomer is likely to sell the 3,000 square foot, 4-bedroom home they raised their family in and instead opt for a 1,500 square foot condo before long. They don’t need the space and they don’t want the stairs. Besides that, they may need the money to fund their retirement. When they’re no longer able to care for themselves, the next downsize may be a 500 square foot nursing home. And the final downsize requires considerably less square footage.

This pattern is likely to put a damper on real estate prices, in general, in the coming decades. It’s also one reason supply, demand and prices for condos in this country may continue to rise.
 According to Statistics Canada, the Baby Boom lasted 20 years in Canada. During that time, more than 8.2 million babies were born, an average of close to 412,000 a year. In comparison, the number of births in 2008, when the population was twice as large as during the baby boom, was only 377,886.”
What this means is that the pressure of Baby Boomer downsizing could be an impediment to home prices, economic growth and inflation
Canadian consumer spending represents about 58% of the Canadian economy as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Shelter, principal accommodation, household operation and household furnishing represent about 58% of consumer spending. This means expenditures related to real estate ownership and maintenance represent about 1/3 of Canadian GDP.

What this means is that the pressure of Baby Boomer downsizing could be an impediment to home prices, economic growth and inflation.

Canada’s annual inflation rate came in at 1.2% for September, below analyst expectations of 1.3%. Core inflation, which excludes the most volatile components of inflation, was 1.3%, compared to an expected 1.5% and down from 1.6% in August. The Bank of Canada maintains a target of 2% for core inflation. The Bank generally increases interest rates in order to keep inflation from rising too much, too quickly. Inflation does not appear to be an issue in Canada at this time, so we continue to have low interest rates.

Deflation — the opposite of inflation — occurs when inflation falls below 0% and prices generally decline. The problem with deflation is that money becomes more valuable the longer you hold it, which tends to become a self-fulfilling prophecy, as spending slows down and prices decline further. Why buy something for $100 today if it will only cost $99 tomorrow? It’s never been much of an issue in Canada, though Japan has fought a battle with it for the past two decades.

Ben Bernanke, governor of the U.S. Federal Reserve, made a famous speech in 2002 in which he said that deflation could be prevented or reversed by dropping money from a helicopter — a speech that earned him the nickname “Helicopter Ben.”

“The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent),” he said, “that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost.”

Ten years later, Bernanke is putting his money where his mouth is, having recently embarked on a third round of quantitative easing to stimulate the U.S. economy. This stimulus is arguably focused most specifically on putting a floor on U.S. real estate prices.

Despite central bank intervention to help encourage economic growth, according to Harry Dent, author of The Great Crash Ahead, demographics are forecasting deflation.

Dent writes: “When the average kid is born, the average parent is 28. They buy their first home when they’re 31 . . . after they had those kids. When the kids age into nasty teenagers, the parents buy a bigger house so they can have space. They do this between the ages of 37 and 42. Their mortgage debt peaks at age 41. And . . . their spending peaks at around 46.”
Baby Boomers represent more than one-quarter of our population. Their spending habits will greatly influence future real estate prices and make the Bank of Canada’s goal of stable, predictable inflation difficult
Baby Boomers were born between 1946 and 1964, meaning their parents turned 46 in the 70s and 80s. Perhaps not surprisingly, these were the years during which Canadian inflation more than tripled from the post-war average of 2% to closer to 6% — peaking in 1975 at nearly 15%. High inflation during the 70s and 80s was not a Canadian phenomenon, but then again, neither was the Baby Boom.

The Baby Boom peaked in 1961. The thing about the magic number 46 is that if you add it to 1961, you get 2007. It’s not that Baby Boomers, the homes they live in and their spending habits caused the financial crises of the last five years — sub-prime mortgage lending in the U.S. and excessive government deficits abroad have played their part. But it’s interesting, nonetheless.

There are about 9.6 million Canadian Baby Boomers. They represent more than one-quarter of our population. Their spending habits will greatly influence future real estate prices and make the Bank of Canada’s goal of stable, predictable inflation difficult. At least we have Helicopter Ben patrolling our southern borders — for better or for worse.

Jason Heath is a fee-only Certified Financial Planner and income tax professional for Objective Financial Partners Inc. in Toronto, Ontario.